Left-handed bat the Cubs need

I have to say that I get frustrated quite a bit with the management of the Chicago Cubs.  There are times when it seems like their fingers are right on the pulse of what is going on in Major League Baseball.  Other times, though, it seems they could not be more out of touch with the needs of the team in the short and long term.  It is utterly frustrating when management decides to do something completely detremental to the team, like trade a good young live arm like Jose Ceda for an average reliever, and there is nothing I can do about it.  While that did frustrate me it is not getting to me as much as this whole left-handed bat situation.  Everyone who follows baseball knows that the Cubs need a left-handed presence in the lineup.  If you watch them, you can see it.  If you do not watch them, then you only need to listen to Lou Piniella talk about it.  I agree that the need is there, but I definitely do not agree with the candidates that Jim Hendry and co. have so far thrown out.

There seem to be four likely outcomes to this left-handed bat situation and I will list them in the order I see right now is most likely. 1) Trade for a left-handed hitting right fielder.  The name most tossed around so far being Mark Teahen.  2) Sign a free agent left-handed hitting right fielder, most likely Raul Ibanez.  3) Move Mark DeRosa to right field and fill the left-handed need with Mike Fontenot.  4) Stay pat and hope Kosuke Fukudome hits like he did in Japan.

Just looking at the situation I would have leaned towards option number three for plenty of reason.  But lets take a look at the numbers.  Mike Fontenot over the last two years with the Cubs has compiled 544 PA.  I have taken his compiled numbers over the last two years and then projected those numbers to an average season of 650 PA.

ACTUAL           544 PA     477 AB     139 H    12 HR     69 RBI    58 BB     .291 BA    .368 OBP     219 TB     .459 SLG   .827 OPS

PROJECTED     650 PA     570 AB     166 H    14 HR     82 RBI    69 BB     .291 BA    .368 OBP     262 TB     .459 SLG   .827 OPS

Now there are a couple problems with these numbers.  First Fontenot is still developing and I think he would see a significant boost from playing everyday, especially in the power numbers.  However playing everyday would mean facing more left-handed pitching.  While he did fare decently against left-handers in 2008, it was a very small sample size (21 AB).  In 2007 he was downright awful agains lef-handers, posting a .219 BA in 52 AB.  I would say with more exposure to lefties his average stats will drop a bit.  Here is what I would put as a projection for Fontenot over the course of next year were he to play every day.

PROJECTION    650 PA     570 AB   17 HR     85 RBI    69 BB     .280 BA    .355 OBP    .440 SLG   .795 OPS

I do not think that is that bad.  I may also be a little low on those numbers based on the plate discipline he has shown during the early stages of his major league career.

Now lets take a look at the other option.  Ibanez is more of a known quantity than Teahen, but we can take the averages of the last three and two years, respectively, to get a good idea of the numbers they might put up.

TEAHEN           616 PA      558 AB    151 H    11 HR     60 RBI    51 BB     .270 BA    .333 OBP       227 TB      .407 SLG   .737 OPS

IBANEZ           681 PA       611 AB    178 H    26 HR    113 RBI   61BB      .291 BA    .354 OBP       301 TB      .493 SLG   .847 OPS

Comparatively speaking, Fontenot kills Teahen, both in the actual production and projected production.  Teahen has been in the league for four seasons.  Am I really supposed to believe that somehow he has a breakout year this year and is not a below average outfielder.  I really do not like the chances of that happening.  Ibanez is a different story though.  His numbers match up favorably with Fontenot's.  The harsh reality with Ibanez is that he is 36 years old and much more likely to have his numbers decline than to have them stay steady or increase.  And until 2008, in which he hit over .300 against left-handed pitching, he was only a .250 hitter against southpaws.

There is one last thing to consider, and it is something that should not be overlooked when considering the impact of player moves in baseball.  What do these moves mean for the team defensively.  I do not think that there is much of a diference between Mark DeRosa and Mike Fontenot at second base.  I would consider both to be average defensively.  Neither one is going to hurt you or help you too much with the glove.  DeRosa in right field is a little more of a question.  There is no doubt he has the athleticism, but even after the number of games he has played in the outfield, I still do not see the comfort level there.  Because of this I would rate him as fringe-average.  As for the other competitors in right field, Ibanez has been, for the most part, a career left fielder and does not present a significant upgrade.  Teahen also does not appear to be a significant upgrade given the crude defensive stats I have available to me at the moment.

In conclusion, I still believe that Fontenot is the best option.  He projects to put up comparable, if not better, numbers than the other options and is head and shoulders above the others when you consider the cost involved.  The cost for Teahen is supposedly Fontenot and Sean Marshall (who I project to be a solid number 5 starter, with the potential to be more, think Jamie Moyer.)  Ibanez is going to be looking for at least a two year deal if not a three year deal.  Do the Cubs really need to invest tens of millions of dollars on a multi-year contract for a corner outfielder on the down side of his career?  Wait, they already did that for their left fielder.  Please do not do it again.