How did I come up with 741 as my predicted home run total? I’m glad you asked.
It’s simple really. I pulled up Griff’s career stats on one of my favorite Web sites (baseball-reference.com), went through and for all the years he didn’t hit 40 homers from 1995-2006 I added the appropriate number to give him 40. That works out to be 23 in 1995 (which was the year The Kid broke his wrist on that amazing catch against the wall in the Kingdome), 18 in 2001, 32 in 2002, 27 in ’03, 20 in 04, five in ’05 and 13 in ’06.
Now I know assuming someone is going to hit 40 homers in a year is to assume quite a lot for most players, but Junior isn’t most players. Between 1993-2000 (excluding 1995) junior averaged nearly 48 homers a year. And as recently as 2005 jacked out 35, so I think in his case 40 a year is a safe and fair assumption.
If the 1990s’ greatest player (yes, I’m talking about Junior) were to have stayed healthy and just jacked out his 741st career homer today think about what newspaper headlines across America would read like for the rest of the season: “Griffey homers, now 21 away from breaking Bonds’ record,” “Junior homers twice, closes in on tainted record,” “Griffey Jr. crushes No. 763, now legitimate all time Home Run King.”
His chase to down what many believe to be a tainted all time home run record (I, too, believe it to be tainted) would be chronicled daily throughout the season, and would be met with the fanfair of the McGwire/Sosa chase of Maris in 1998, not the ho-hum manner in which Bonds’ chase of Aaron was covered in ’07.
But alas, we here in the Great Northwest are left to ponder what might have been had The Kid never left Seattle. As it is, Junior will be remembered as one of the greatest players to have ever donned a baseball uni; easily one of the top 15 or 20 ever. But what if he could have just avoided those hamstring and shoulder problems that have plagued his time as a Red and have cost him over 400 games? He very well may have been in the conversation of the greatest ever – a conversation that includes the likes of Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays and Ty Cobb.
It’s funny, it always seems like when people talk about Griffey Jr. they’re talking about him like he’s already done playing and retired (“he was one of the all time greats,” “what would he have done if…”), hell I know I can be blamed for the same thing. But here’s the crazy thing, the guy is only 38 years old and his swing is still as sweet and as recognizable as it was in the mid-90s. He still hits for power and hasn’t been seriously injured in over a year and a half (knock on wood!). Even if his days of cracking 40 out of the park every season are behind him, the 1997 AL MVP is still a legit threat to hit 25 or 30. Hell, he still may be able to break the 700 club and finish third or fourth all time.
Griffey has been my favorite player since he broke into the big leagues, and as a Seattle-ite, I’d love nothing more than to see him finish his career as an M (which he said he wants to do) and let the city of Seattle give him a proper send-off to end his Hall of Fame career.
In an era in which anyone who hits over 30 homers in a year is accused of performance enhancing drug use, Griff has always done it the right way and the clean way. Whatever happens between now and the end of his career one thing is for sure, The Kid will go down in history as one of the good guys who always did it right.
Oh yeah, and as his 10 Gold Glove Awards for his play in center field prove, he wasn’t too bad with the leather either!
Keywords: all time, Babe Ruth, Cincinnati Reds, home run, home run king, homer, injury, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Seattle Mariners, Ty Cobb, Willie Mays
